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More Virology... Unfortunately

15/3/2020

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Well we are in it deep now...

COVID-19: It's by the definition a pandemic. It's loss of containment, loss of control, and it's spreading.

What I find strange in the news flowing through the mulitple channels is the variance of the mortality rate being reported on this virus. It makes one think there is more than one strain (mutation) at work here.

Case and point - acknowledging China's 3% published mortality rates, we are now seeing reports of up to 9% in certain regions within Italy. Is this due to a specific population? Are these souls lost because they fall within some high risk group or is it because of a change in the veracity of this contagion? I really hope my theory of multiple strains is way off base here...

Regardless, considering the nature of this virus I know there are far worse possibilities out there. I truly hope we all learn from this.

What I find most difficult here is the ethical tug-of-war we have to contend with in such situations. For example the following is a hypothetical that I'm sure is already playing out across the world at this very moment:
1). Your extended family, say your elderly parents, fall ill - expressing the symptoms of the virus - but the health teams are unable to test and confirm it is truly that virus because the testing capability is simply unavailable.
2). Do you step in to help (assuming of course you even have a choice), and possibly risk your immediate family, including your newly born son or daughter? Or do you remain at a distance and hope your loved ones fare through this on their own.

It's a vexatious dilemma, one in particular, that if you compared it to some other situation, you would consider the virus to be evil in nature.
But nature is not evil is it? It just is.

Add to the scenario above, another situation, where you are the health care provider with limited resources (such as isolation rooms, ventilator equipment, and medicines (ie: diuretics to reduce fluid buildup in the lungs)).
Due to the pandemic you simply do not have enough resources to contend with all the cases coming into the treatment center. You start making judgement calls - the younger are preferred treatment - the older are simply made as comfortable as possible.
The problem is, as time passes, the sick keep coming, and it is up to you to perform more (and more) difficult decisions.

Mankind has contended with these situations throughout history, but this does not mean that you have direct experience with this. This leaves little comfort at best.

It's at times such as this that science and technology provide us little support, and we turn to our religions to help us.

In such times of suffering, when we are truly stripped down to our very essence, tested and stressed beyond limits that we could never have imagined, perhaps we are at our weakest. But I would propose at the same time we have also, desperately and determinedly, been able to find that internal well of strength - and we are also at our strongest.

So stay strong, keep a level head and do not lose it to fear, and when it begins to look futile do not lose hope.

Above all, cherish your humanity and help others where you can.

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Virology 101

19/2/2020

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Seems like almost every year we are encountering some sort of serious outbreak in a given region of our world, whether it be a variant of the coronavirus, ebola, the avian flu, or even the black plague (yes it is still lurking out there). In fact, I've read a number accounts of concerns being raised regarding the re-emerging of smallpox. To top all this off we've recently discovered dormant viruses buried in glaciers dating back thousands of years.

WHO (Worldwide Health Organization) has stated many times we are on the verge of a worldwide pandemic. The coronavirus is not, as yet considered one.

Viruses. Why do they even exist other than to cause ongoing suffering? Strangely enough their goal is simple - to multiply at the expense of their host. Not much different then a parasite in a sense.

What makes a really dangerous virus? We'll start with a couple basic terms:
Incubation Period - the time one is infected before exhibiting symptoms.
Contagious/Infectious Period - the time one is shedding the virus and could infect others.

These periods may overlap. One may be contagious and NOT show any symptoms (for a time). This is different for each virus of course, but viruses that exhibit this ability are not uncommon: measles, chickenpox, rubella, and on and on...

Consider a virus with an extended incubation period, where the host experiences no symptoms, and is unknowingly quite contagious to others.

Next point is in regard to mode of transmission, accompanied with the ability of a virus to survive without a host, and lastly, its preferred attack vector - or way of infecting the host.

Blood-born viruses such as dengue-fever, malaria, and many STDs are good examples of diseases that are transmitted through the exchange of blood and/or bodily fluids. You would think these viruses would have a hard time surviving, yet they manage quite successfully year after year.

Raise the danger level up a notch, however, and you now have the common flu/cold, and variants such as H1N1 (swine flu) or H5N1 (avian flu), H1N1 (spanish flu), and of course let's not forget the Covid-19 (coronavirus) with all its similar sub-types (MERS,SARS). These particular nasties attack the body either through breathing it in, or landing near facial entry area including the surface of one's eyes. Their primary method of transmission is traveling through the air in suspended droplets ejected from an infected coughing host. In addition, they are hardy enough to withstand a range of temperature fluctuations, and can remain dormant but alive on surfaces for many hours.

Again this demonstrates the need to wash your hands many times during the day. You pick up a nasty on the escalator rail, then touch your face - too late.

There's a term for "rate of infection" they call r-naught (R0). The higher the number, the worse the infection propagates through a population. Measles is 12-18 (essentially the highest we know of for now). In comparison, the 1918 flu that literally killed millions was only around 2.4 on this index. Note: If you get under 1.0, the infection will usually fizzle out. The R0 for coronavirus Covid-19 is ranging from 2.2 and 3.1 depending on the sources. This essentially means a person who contracts the virus is highly probable to further infect 2-3 others.

Now if a virus was particularly ruthless, and tended to kill its host, the R0 would likely drop, as its infectious period would be shortened. To be truly successful, a virus must be devious, take its time to incubate and infect the host's systems to the point that host is contagious. Upon onset of symptoms the virus will then proceed to make the host truly miserable for an extended period of time (short of not killing the host), and throughout this time actively shed itself, ensuring the host is highly contagious throughout, effectively managing to replicate itself over many, many hosts.

Anyone familiar with this sort of behaviour? Alas, it is the common cold and the dreaded flu.

As eluded to above, many viruses are not benign, and they have an established mortality rate - usually expressed as a percentage. One must consider the population affected to understand this number. If a particular population has little to no previous exposure to a similar virus family, then the rate goes up. If the population is aged, or possibly very young, and their immunity systems are weak, the rate may go up. How healthy and adaptable the population is plays a factor here.

Let's revisit the yearly flu. It usually averages between 1.5 - 1.8%. In contrast, the 1918 flu was estimated to be in a range from 10-20% (although the upper range representing the extreme, and we can't know for sure, as this outbreak was worldwide and not properly documented). The 2019 flu season numbers are still in progress - but we are in the range of multi-millions infected and tens of thousands have died. This is a bad flu season in comparison, regardless of the shadow cast by the coronavirus.

Depending on your information source, the current coronavirus outbreak is ranging from 2.5% to as high as 11%. So why doesn't this outbreak seem as deadly as the 1918 spanish flu outbreak?
I have my theories, but it is very important to understand what often accompanies these lousy infections: Pneumonia (viral or bacterial, doesn't matter much). Once the virus is done with us, we are ripe targets. In fact. organizations such as CDC/WHO often amalgamate the two when they present mortality/morbidity rates for flu strains.

Some good news: we have some things they didn't have back in 1918 - antibiotics and vaccines. Add this to our repertoire of medical practices, plus the general understanding by the average person to avoid exposure in the first place - and things are much better.

Now that we've touched on the basics, and in the process avoided explaining how our immune system actually defeats a viral attack, maybe we should touch on that too.

Our immune system is a collection of different "fighting" cells that are dispersed throughout our body. They use the bloodstream and lymphatic systems as highways to move throughout our body. Most of these cells originate from within our bone marrow starting as stem cells and morphing into T or B (lymphocyte) cells, and many other types as well. The key thing here (and yes I am simplifying) is that the our immune system creates "antibodies" which are soldiers built specifically to defeat a given virus. As each virus is unique in its overall shape/configuration - not all our soldiers can reach the heart of the virus successfully - to infiltrate and kill it. So we have all these very unique antibodies standing ready to be replicated and sent onto the frontline. This is why vaccines work to ready our bodies for a given virus. We inject pieces of the virus (dead, or DNA/RNA strings - let's call them antigens) into our bodies, which then allows our immunity cells to learn and adapt, effectively readying our new soldiers.

And all of this works great as long as the immune system recognizes this antigen as a foreign invader...

Last but not least, as I've saved the best for last (of course)...

There is something they refer to as mutation - meaning that the virus modifies itself during its generation process, and changes itself sufficiently to stop our antibody soldiers in their tracks. We still don't fully understand this mechanism, although we have discovered many viruses are actually internally programmed to mutate. Adding insult to injury - the more successful the virus is in infiltrating many hosts, the greater the odds we will see a mutation occur.
When a mutation occurs all bets are off - the virus can adapt new and even more dangerous abilities.
Mutation is why we have a new flu season almost every year.
Mutation is how a serious outbreak turns into a pandemic.

So to wrap up (since I am a sci-fi writer). Maybe the real danger in us finding our precious "sister world" to Earth will not be competing sentient aliens. Maybe the danger will be the foreign nasties operating at the cellular level. Our act of colonization will result in us fighting a different kind of war.

I think I need to educate myself more on biology...

If you'd like to understand the immune system and how it works in more depth, try this youtube series link, fascinating stuff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jBpv9fYSU4

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Welcome 2020 and the Aurora Awards!

14/1/2020

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It's 2020 and best wishes to everyone - hope all of you have a memorable year.

Personally, I've been stalled on my most latest project (The 4 Seasons of Man), not due to any lack of ideas - but more of time and priority, and for me, family always takes priority.

In the meantime, I've submitted my application for consideration of "A Bellicose Dance" to a fine organization called the Aurora Awards. If you've not heard of them, or you are interested in any of the 2019 submissions (organized by multiple literature categories), feel free to surf to here to the Canadian_Aurora_Awards.

Now in order to be considered, I'd need a number of nominations of third parties, so I do (of course) appreciate your support.

Take care. I hope the future provides you good health and prosperity.

Sincerely,
Patrickatrick

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It's the End of the World

9/10/2019

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I just finished reading a few articles which posed an interesting perspective on the Climate Change issue - they discuss the effect this particular problem is having on children - their increase in anxiety, the expectations upon them to become active in the face of an immovable barrier of government indifference. It seems many have taken on the belief that this is truly the end of all things, that our planet is dying - and we will soon follow.

It's a bit unnerving to think we are raising a new generation under such a black cloud of dire prediction.

I think, just maybe, we should all take a breath and spend some time talking with our little ones - give them some perspective, drive down that anxiety a bit.

This all being said, I do want to take this story to the next level: It's the End of the World! I mean, it's been the end of the world for almost every day I've been alive, I'm sure of it, and I'm sure many days after I'm dust.

We are fascinated with the dystopian reality are we not?

All you need to do is surf the web for a couple minutes and you'll find someone who is absolutely sure that an asteroid will hit, or that famine will spread, or the Big One is only a few hours away. It's gonna happen. It's gonna be bad, and some of us won't make it. The Myans knew the date and they said it was tomorrow - but you have to translate that date definition calendar thingy for yourself.

Scary stuff nonetheless.

So I talked about Climate Change last topic. My intention was NOT to tell everyone we were all done for. On the contrary, I look to this as an opportunity for us to change - to listen, to feel, to respond, to act. That's my intent in all this correspondence, really.

It's a complex world, of that there is NO doubt. Take the argument for atmospheric warming - and counter one that is not so well known, only this one has evidence of past events that have been measured. It is a phenomenon of the variability of the (heat) radiation output of our sun. This particular event of interest is called the Maunder Minimum. You can read about it here at https://www.britannica.com/science/Maunder-minimum. This is possibly a big deal - as it could counter ALL of our efforts to heat up this planet - despite our radical indifference to the problem.
The reality is that even the smallest dip in energy from our sun can drive us into another ice age, and this can occur relatively quickly.

So what happens when both of these forces occur at the same time? Is it possible that this whole global warming is actually serendipity in action? A lucky happenstance?

It's a complex world and it's pretty difficult to predict the future.

Maybe scaring the kids is not a good idea.

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The Challenge of Climate Change

29/9/2019

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It was heartening to witness the marches throughout the world during international World Environmental Health Day (Sep 26th,2019) , on its heels Global Client Strike Days (ie: week), all of it tied to the UN Client Action Summit in one way or another.
Indeed, certain political bodies have made an effort to inch forward in some form or another in the reduction of CO2 emissions. In (two) words, that's great. In another two, not enough. To quote Greta Thunberg (a very passionate young lady from Sweden) "We'll be watching you."
Don't put too much faith in the governments. Think of their track record. Too little, too late is what we can count on there. We'll need some real leaders to make a difference here.

For argument's sake, let's start with the infamous science. Carbon dioxide passed the 400ppm mark many years ago (Sep 2016). That was a limit which this planet has not experienced for 2.2 million years, but hey, our (Sol) system and its planets are over 4.5 billion, so this is no biggie, right? Interestingly, Scientists have aligned the 405ppm measured limit (which we are arguably closing in on) with a full 2 degree planetary temperature increase.

"So!" exclaim the hoax advocates. "Some polar ice melts, some summer days are a little warmer. This is ALL part of the natural order of things - nothing Earth has not seen before. They're all just making a big deal out of nothing . This is scaremongering to the masses."

Yes, the message is unclear - and is based on projection, linking other negative trends through association - when "this" amount is known (in the climatic record, based on geology), the overall temperature was "this".
I'm being obtuse here for a reason. The actual values of "this" DO NOT matter. The point is the predicted future is "predicated" by the past. The irony is that this future - our future - will not be like the past, it will be very, very different. How can I say this? Simple logic - all the variables are different - things have changed since way back then. It's difficult to transpose the past into the future - doesn't really fit.

One thing most people can agree on is that things are changing. The real question is what will be the new normal - where will all of this end up?

I can state, with absolute surety, it is time to welcome in the unknown...

Does that scare you?

Let me help you with this. There are a few facts I've not presented:

1. Everything is interconnected. Sounds reasonable, but shall I postulate what that could mean in one specific case?
It's a bit impossible to actually measure the total billions of kilograms of water currently migrating from the poles to oceans, but I will say the extra weight is significant. These waters will not evenly distribute themselves, either. Push down on specific tectonic plates, and you get geological instability, which leads to - you guessed it - geological events (earthquakes and volcanoes). I put these events in the category of pretty bad, bad, and very bad.

2. Change is occurring right now.
I don't need to predict anything here, just watch the news. Dare I say the rain forests are burning? Drought in areas, floods in others, die-offs of birds, fish, whales, seals, etc., etc., etc.. We are seeing significant shifts in weather patterns, storms reaching beyond strength into the the once-in-every-100-years patterns. What happens when crops start failing on a global scale? People go hungry. What happens when we destroy the primary producers of oxygen?

3. It's the unanticipated that really hits us hard.
Interconnections are incredibly varied and strange. We've seen disease carrying insect populations (such as ticks with their lyme disease) moving further north, and even more unusual diseases being transmitted by mosquitoes (Zika virus). Our bodies simply aren't prepared for this onslaught.
And we aren't the only ones affected here. Our flora and fauna feel it too. Whole populations of plants from trees to flowers are dying.
Sure, we can anticipate the water levels are going to rise, but there are so many other possibilities at play. If one were to flood ANY specific shoreline city the true effect would go well beyond the immediate relocation of residents. Consider the damage to the environment by our poisons being carried within the water.
The truly insidious nature of the unknown is that we cannot, no matter how hard we try, prepare ourselves for what is coming.

4. The worst of all the facts, is that C02 is just a key - a catalyst - the real warming has yet to be triggered.
It's called methane, and it continues to burst up from the warming ocean floor, and the expansive northern plains of Russia and Canada. Methane is 86 times more effective at retaining heat than carbon dioxide. I present this to you with consideration, we are just at the beginning of this train ride.

The question is, as it was, as it will be, and I'll pose it yet again: Where does it all stop? Will our climate achieve a new balance - or worse is this potentially becoming a runaway system with no stability?

Well take heart. I do believe that entropy will always win. One day in the future the Earth will again be mostly covered in ice - but that is for the geologists of the future, not for any time soon. We'll be gone a long time by then.

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It's Available (My next book)

29/7/2019

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OK, I have to admit, like everyone else out there I get caught up with the stuff of life. Work, family, and a long list of TODOs. So why did it take me so long? I mean, I was ready in April (pretty much). I guess I am guilty of procrastination, or just maybe this being my second book I was not as excited to push this project to the end. Regardless, it's done.
To my insiders, stay tuned as I'll be running a few price reduction passes (as per allowed programs through KDP select).
Yes, I am writing my next novel (as I've hinted at) although I admit summer has me distracted. I'm sure I'll start gaining some traction as fall wanes on...
In the meantime - take care and happy reading!

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A Question of Credibility

29/4/2019

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I'm a Canadian, and yes, proud of my country - that is our people, our way of life, you know the whole democratic ideological socialistic approach thing. No, I don't include politicians in this list. As a mater-of-fact I find myself consistently at odds with what I consider poor decision-making in Ottawa.

Regardless, our levels of government recently thought it a fine idea to enforce a carbon tax upon the public. They don't call it a tax, but it is.
What I don't see is where these "additional funds" will be going, and I suspect, ultimately, that money will be diverted to somewhere I would not approve of, and most certainly it would not be assigned to anything even considered DIRECT ACTION on climate change. BTW there are many, many ideas out there from some relatively bright people on what to do about climate change, but of course, no one is actually doing anything.

But let's break this down a bit, for the average Joe. Climate Change or Global Warming is being touted to be the most pressing issue in our times - and as some would put it - a possible root cause of our future extinction. The scientific community has done an incredibly poor job at convincing Joe there's an actual issue at hand. As a matter-of-fact, Joe has been counter-convinced it's all a farce by (some) other scientists.

Joe's no fool though. Joe knows a few things. Politicians have lied to him. They've have been found to be corrupt, lacking in any ethical and moral leadership so many times he's lost count. And as for scientists, they are basically willing to state anything if you pay them enough. (Smoking doesn't cause cancer, does it?)

So Joe doesn't have a problem with his beliefs.

Assuming global warming is true, it's really the IPCC that has a problem. They and their scientific community representatives have lost an incredible amount of credibility in the public's eyes, and when you have no trust, you really have nothing.

As for the actual climate change/global warming issue, it's going to do what it's going to do regardless of what Joe believes. The Earth will do just fine - with or without us (actually, sorry, a point of correction: the Earth and mother nature will do better without us).

So where are we are this carbon tax SCAM thing again?

Let's not lose perspective on this, after all, the medical community is doing such as fine job living up to expectation and providing public comfort. Joe is jaded with the attempts to convince him that he should believe them, trust them, know they are working on his behalf. Joe would like to believe, but that credibility thing gets in the way again.

For example, medical health providers would love to convince Joe that vaccinations are needed, but they neglect to be clear on exactly what has been added into that vaccination shot (of which, I suppose, they have an obligation to be very, very clear). Did Joe want them to vaccinate for the dozens and dozens of viruses? I mean if was just mumps, rubella, polio, smallpox - sure he wouldn't have a problem, he had the shots himself when he was a kid, but then he looks deeper and to find out the truth.

Joe understands that the medical industry as a whole functions on profit - and no one makes money if everyone is cured.

So credibility is the problem. Politicians, Scientists, Doctors - you all get a big fat ZERO. Don't coming whining to Joe when no one believes in you. It's your mess, you clean it up.

And if you are curious about MY opinion:

1. I believe that we have contributed pollution, including carbon monoxide and dioxide, into our atmosphere and we are reaching critical saturation levels. Basically, mother nature has decided it needs to find a new balance in its climate - and this new state of "normal" we probably won't like. I think we'll find out just how bad that can be in the next fifty years, and no amount of taxing the income of the public will stop this.

2. Vaccinations are good - as long as I know exactly what I am vaccinating my children or myself for. So the medical industry should stick to the basics, and stop racking up a big bill for wonderful new concoctions. It's time to focus on real healthcare.

PS: A small proviso: And I reserve the right to change my opinions in the future, sometime, but most-likely not tomorrow... is

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Mar 2019... The next project

20/3/2019

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I'm sure this one will take me some time...

Now that I'm wrapping up "A Bellicose Dance" I am refocusing my attention to my next pet project: an anthology (a collection of selected literary pieces or passages or works of art or music).

Each story a passage. I like that word. It defines an imagery that is literal, yet ambiguous.

We'll start with the title - the vision if you will, the common tie: The 4 Seasons of Man. Seasons in the context of the span of our civilization: where we've started, where we are going, our ongoing travel down a winding, yet challenging, path only to reach some ultimate destination. How does it at all end - if it does?

Winter: Geologists have the evidence, and it's clear. Our planet has survived many life-ending events - filter events of our survival if you will. Time and time again we seem to pull through these troubled times, but not without baring the scars. No matter how bad things get, we have our hope, and eventually, the sun does indeed rise and we feel its warmth again.

Spring: brings with it new life, new opportunity, and promise of something better. We are a speck in the universe. There is so much out there, presenting so many possibilities, and we do so much like to explore.

Summer: is the time of reaping the benefits of our accomplishments, when we leave our imprint upon that which we command, if not only what we can influence. With so much knowledge at our disposal, and such unlimited capability, we have to be very careful of the decisions we make.

Fall: As our days grow darker, and our great domain diminishes to a shred of what we once remembered, the last true great filter looms ahead.

And nope, dunno where this will all end up in the end. This is where we are going...

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Feb 2019 - Publishing "A Bellicose Dance"

17/2/2019

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Bellicose - a predisposition to war: confrontational, aggressive, militant

Man encounters another race - superior in technology, weapons, tools and a desire to consume. The end result is predictable.
But what if we had time, a foreshadow, a buffer? If another civilization stood in the way just long enough to delay the inevitable.

One man could do little against such forces, a slave least of all.

The clock is ticking, and time is running out. Those who witnessed the Xi-Empire's brutality know its only a matter of time.

This is about how far I'm willing to go for a precursor. I mean I don't want to spoil it for you. :)

Let's do a thought exercise:

1. What does it take to cross-light year's of space, to develop the science and tools necessary to traverse the abyss?

2. How long would it take to learn the above, to evolve to a point where the technology, sciences, have reached a sufficient level?

3. Why would they travel the stars? What could they searching for? Is it knowledge? Is it simply reaching out to find others: the need to be assured they are not alone, the thirst to explore?

4. Could they find us? Would we be easy to find? Just how noisy is this little dot of ours? (Yeah, unfortunately we are noisy but radio waves travel slowly)

5. If a race could truly achieve all of this, and eventually find us, and given Earth's resources would not be considered incredibily unique, then perhaps mankind would be more similar to lab mice in a scientific study program. Perhaps the true value of Earth is in the very life it harbours.

6. Taking all of this into consideration, the odds are the true danger does not lie with an evolved race, but with one that has prematurely achieved the above...

Despite where we ended up with this exercise, it is difficult to think like an alien. They are alien to us, after all, and that is the true challenge. ;)

No on4.

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The End of 2018...

30/12/2018

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My posts have been few in 2018, 'tis true.
I'm not a full time writer. I work a full time job. :o
Well OK, enough excuses. The real question is what have I been up to with my free cycles of time. Right now, as I'm writing, I have CBS News Sunday Morning playing in the background as they reflect back on 2018 - the many events, the faces of those who passed, the hope for tomorrow.
Tomorrow (in the general context) for me is grounded in work (really, what else?). My free cycles have been trying to get this 2nd novel out the door. How many editing passes is this now? This is getting painful (to me not you hehe).
The goal is pretty simple - pick any paragraph, or group of paragraphs, randomly from this book and read them out loud to (anyone). Will the words inspire? Will they intrigue you? Or will they be passed over as flat ramblings, verbose descriptions, background noise.
(Geez I hope not.)
I think I just completed (hopefully) my final pass. Now to my real editor.
I was so very close. I really did want to get this out for Christmas. Alas, realities of time and tribulation.
Maybe I've burned too many cycles, watched too many Christmas specials with my wife (lol). Then again, these dates are my own - no one else's. So I'll get there when I get there. (Soon though) I still have to get the cover artwork done as well. ;)

What's the new novel about? Well it is science-fiction, but I don't want to give it away just yet. No its not a continuation of "Of Days Gone By" - yes there always seems to be a fascination with sequels. This one will stand on its own. But I do hope you like it.

That all being said back to CBS Sunday. .Damn... 2018 was a strange year.

See you on the flip side after the ball drops. I'll try to post more in 2019 (we'll see about that) .

Happy New 2019!

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More Virology... Unfortunately

Virology 101

Welcome 2020 and the Aurora Awards!

It's the End of the World

The Challenge of Climate Change

It's Available (My next book)

A Question of Credibility

Mar 2019... The next project

Feb 2019 - Publishing "A Bellicose Dance"

The End of 2018...

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