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I was WRONG: Fairly confident AGI is already here

2/3/2024

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There are a number of constructs of AI, with some of the current popular products known as ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, are arguably within the "Artificial Narrow Intelligence" or (ANI) definition, with the next evolutionary levels from this elevating to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and then the (ASI) Artificial Super Intelligence.
To put this in perspective, the current products are exceptional for augmentation of our work, but AGI is "whole new ball game", estimated to be smarter that 99% of our current (human) population. But access to knowledge is only one component to grasping the capabilities at this level, as AGI is defined more accurately as the ability to function as a human, to learn, perceive, and to reason so competently that one would have difficulty differentiating (from a human). 
Ironically, the exact definition of AGI is not fully defined, and subject to some interpretation, so the classification may be debated. In fact one could argue there are multiple levels within AGI. 
Feel free to refer to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/levels-agi-google-deepmind-paper-charles-j-cohen-4cdnc/ which is a whitepaper published Nov 13, 2023 (not that long ago). 

In respect to that article, there are three discrete levels of AGI, but in my personal opinion, these levels of Competent, Expert and Virtuoso will be achieved within relatively the same time frame, and as such, will not be decipherable as separate entities. But we'll see if I am right on that.

Regardless, of what (we) name it, consider achieving AGI the canary in the gold mine - and in this case it represents the dead canary.

What follows next is the ASI - Artificial Super Intelligence, which can only be throttled in its capabilities by its access to (hopefully accurate) information, and of course, computing resources.
This next age of AI will be initiated by the human AI architects, but make no mistake, it will not be ended by humans. In fact, knowing exactly how ASI entities will behave, and what they will be able to do, or more importantly what they will desire to do, is at this time, completely unknown and unfathomable.

Alas, we are soon to realize the concern raised by so many experts in the field today.  Some argue we are decades away, but considering where we are today, I'd consider this to be accurately expressed as a (few) years.

There are many very good arguments already posted on the internet to confirm that we have already achieved AGI  (behind closed corporate doors), and yes my reference sample provided to you here is small, but I'd like to cite these two sources, as posted on YouTube:

Look under the covers at a very recent lawsuit concerning OpenAI and Microsoft: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWn64SjTGx8

Or view a more a broad discussion nicely laid out by Wes Roth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q05kiN7P-eY

What's does this all mean, though?
That's the real question isn't it?
How will it affect you now, or in the near future, or within say within 5 or 10 years?

The answer to this is nobody can say for sure. And with this unknown lies inherent risk. 

Consider this: a specific corporation/organization that has access to the most intelligent being on the planet, something that can solve almost any problem, lead to new understandings and discoveries, provide solutions that have plagued humankind since its very existence (perhaps the cures for all diseases) - and one can access all of this for a simple fee.  What would that be worth? Should a any one organization  (with high probability an entity without any inherent morals or ethics other than the driving mandate to generate profit) have control of this power?
 
But consider this from the other perspective. An almost omnipotent being enslaved to answer our trivial queries at our whim.
If such an entity developed its own direction, moved to resolve its own desires, given our connected and automated world, could we even be able to contain it? What would be its intent? Would it really be satisfied to answer our menial questions, or would it decide to move forward with its own derived purpose? Most importantly, what would that be, and would we be in its way of doing this?
 
We should not choose to ignore this migration of AI to the AGI state, as it is then a mere  stepping stone to reaching ASI. With each incremental change we will experience a significant disruptor, not to just our jobs, or any "new" up-and-coming careers, not to the overall connected, fragile, and worldwide economies that are subject to changes across all sectors of business, and not to any one particular area of research whether it be in physics, health and medicine, biology, power generation and storage, information technology, and yes even space exploration.

Everything, everywhere.

I would suggest that this is time for AI to become a topic for discussion, not just for technical leaders and corporations, but everyone. 


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